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S&P 500 rolling 10 year returns: 1926-2023

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Real broad effective US dollar exchange rate

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US dollar in historical perspective since 1973

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Equity risk premiums are higher outside the US

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Current valuations do not appear to be pricing in a decline in earnings

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CPI year over year (%)

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S&P 500 had consecutive declining years only three times in past 86 years since 1937

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Capital markets assumptions

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Percentage of US equity funds underperforming their benchmarks

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How often is the stock market positive?

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